Three major Canadian banks provided positive economic outlooks on Thursday, in contrast to the concerns expressed by many small businesses amid the ongoing trade dispute with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results on the Toronto Stock Exchange. With combined assets totaling up to $6 trillion, these banking giants have substantial portfolios and extensive client networks across Canada and the U.S., offering them valuable insights into the impact of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, citing improvements in employment and GDP in Q2. He expressed a cautious optimism about continued economic expansion, noting that despite ongoing trade tensions, the average effective tariff rate remains low.
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. He pointed out that over $1 trillion in approved projects are in the pipeline through 2035, indicating promising investment opportunities in the country.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed measured confidence about the latter half of 2026 and emphasized the bank’s vigilance in monitoring the evolving trade environment. The bank is closely observing the labor market for any signs of weakness that may arise.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council warned that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were to be eliminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the latest round of U.S. tariffs could shave half a percentage point off Canadian growth, primarily impacting business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira commended the resilience of Canada’s economy and praised government initiatives to support businesses affected by tariffs. He highlighted key investments in energy and infrastructure and applauded regulatory measures that enhance banks’ ability to support struggling businesses.
Leaders of Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank also expressed confidence in managing the Canada-U.S. trade war. Despite economic uncertainties, shares of Canada’s major banks remain near record highs on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF showing significant growth over the past year.