Health authorities combating the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are employing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint regions at risk of virus transmission, as confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers. This innovative strategy, a first in Ebola response efforts, is crucial as officials grapple with what the WHO has labeled the most rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak, the 17th in Congo, stems from the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no approved vaccines or treatments exist.
With cases reported in six provinces and over 6,250 individuals infected and 3,039 fatalities since the outbreak declaration on May 15, health experts are seeking to predict potential outbreak locations and allocate limited surveillance and intervention resources effectively. Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements in understanding and addressing the current epidemic.
Rather than solely focusing on outbreak epicenters, which traditional risk assessments do, the analysis of mobility data enables responders to identify risks in areas that may be geographically distant but interconnected through travel patterns. For instance, in Ituri province, where the virus is believed to have originated, significant population movements linked to mining and trade activities play a pivotal role in outbreak dissemination.
The analysis, conducted by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, utilizes anonymized records generated when mobile users connect to telecommunication networks, illustrating their travel patterns by tracking connections to various network antennas. This data, generously provided by Vodacom, Congo’s leading operator, offers crucial insights into population movements without compromising individual privacy.
Notably, Flowminder’s initial analysis concentrated on Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, where the outbreak is presumed to have started. By monitoring travel patterns from these areas between April 3 and April 23, researchers identified significant flows to neighboring regions in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, all of which eventually reported confirmed Ebola cases.
As the outbreak expanded, Flowminder extended its analysis to other affected areas, particularly highlighting the risk posed to Kisangani, a vital transport hub connecting eastern and western Congo. The data demonstrated a substantial risk of outbreak spread to Kisangani, prompting intensified operations to preemptively address the situation.
Recent studies underscore connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River and bordering regions, emphasizing the potential spread to Congo’s capital and surrounding areas. The WHO’s ongoing warnings about outbreak expansion into Kinshasa and neighboring countries align with modeling exercises projecting a 70% likelihood of a case detection in Kinshasa by the end of September.
While the analysis is valuable, it has limitations, relying solely on data from Congolese mobile networks and one operator, Vodacom. Efforts are underway to collaborate with other operators to enhance coverage and access more comprehensive data for a more effective response.