A recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies projects a significant decline in the number of children in the UK over the next ten years, estimating a reduction of 800,000. This demographic shift is expected to result in potential school closures and job losses among teachers. The report highlights that declining fertility rates will lead to a transformative change in the UK population structure, affecting areas such as education and government budgets.
Historical data shows that after the post-war baby boom, fertility rates started decreasing notably from the 1960s onwards, resulting in a substantial decrease in the number of school-age children in the 1970s and 1980s. Similar declines were observed in the 2000s, with the trend continuing today. The projection indicates a 7% decrease, equivalent to 800,000 fewer children in the UK by 2035.
The decline in primary school enrollment is most pronounced in Wales, Scotland, and London. Specifically, between 2016 and 2025, primary pupil numbers decreased by 3% in Scotland, 4% in Wales, and 9% in London compared to a 1% decrease across England as a whole.
Certain localities are experiencing substantial drops in student numbers, with areas like Gwynedd, Wrexham, and Flintshire in North Wales seeing a 9% to 10% decline. In London, pupil numbers have plummeted by 15% or more in districts such as Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Lambeth, Southwark, and Westminster over the past decade.
The proportion of children aged 15 and under in the population has decreased from 25% in the early 1970s to an anticipated 15% by 2035 in England, Scotland, and Wales. This shift is accompanied by a rising number of individuals over 65, leading to increased state pension costs and healthcare expenses. However, the reduction in pupil numbers could potentially lower the cost of state education provision.
The anticipated decline in child numbers is expected to be more pronounced in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland compared to England. Notably, this marks the first significant drop in the number of children in England since the 1980s.
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at IFS, emphasized the profound impact that decreasing child numbers will have on the UK population, particularly in the education sector. Policymakers face decisions on whether to cut costs through teacher layoffs or school closures, or to maintain education spending and implement smaller class sizes based on past governmental strategies influenced by economic conditions.
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, views the declining child population as an opportunity for enhancing teaching quality in UK schools. This improvement hinges on strategic decisions regarding teacher recruitment, retention, and the potential closure of schools.