A warning from a leading expert suggests that a recent agreement to increase NHS spending on drugs by £3 billion to satisfy demands from Donald Trump could result in over 15,000 deaths due to potential rationing of other healthcare services. The deal, aimed at avoiding US tariffs on UK pharmaceutical exports, is expected to enhance UK investment and expedite patient access to advanced medications.
However, projections by the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York indicate that diverting more funds towards drug purchases may lead to loss of lives as resources are not being allocated efficiently for personnel and facilities. Specifically, the expert at the center predicts a rise in fatalities, particularly related to cancer, heart conditions, and respiratory ailments.
Professor Karl Claxton expressed concerns over the detrimental impact of the government’s decision to increase drug expenditures on NHS patients, social care, and local economic development. The potential consequences include additional deaths and a decline in overall health, with estimates suggesting a substantial increase in social care costs and negative effects on economic growth.
The NHS traditionally benefits from its bargaining power to secure lower drug prices compared to private hospitals in the US. Facing the threat of tariffs on drug imports, the UK government yielded to pressure from Trump and pharmaceutical companies, agreeing to raise the cap on new medicine purchases by 25%.
The agreement also includes a reduction in repayment rates on NHS drug spending by drug firms starting in 2026, in exchange for maintaining US import taxes at 0% for three years. This move aims to ensure access to innovative medicines for patients while sustaining pharmaceutical exports to the US.
While some view the deal positively for improving drug availability and economic ties, concerns persist regarding its potential adverse effects on patient health, social care costs, and economic stability. The impact is expected to be significant across various health conditions and could lead to substantial economic losses and increased burdens on local authorities.