Following Andy Burnham’s announcement of his intention to enter the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a difficult decision. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge, as only MPs are eligible to contest for the leadership position.
Moreover, the added complexity of potentially engaging in an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amidst challenging upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May could pose significant risks for Labour. Poor results in these elections could create a precarious situation for Starmer, with potential leadership contenders like Burnham waiting to seize opportunities.
The alternative, chosen by the Prime Minister, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the financial burden on taxpayers and the diversion of party resources from the impending May elections. While this move may have averted immediate threats, it could have detrimental long-term consequences.
The decision sparked backlash, with MPs accusing Labour’s ruling body of orchestrating a political maneuver. Burnham could potentially become a symbol for disgruntled backbenchers who view the decision as heavy-handed control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already shown a propensity for rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple U-turns. Heightened tensions within the party could further complicate Starmer’s leadership.
A government minister, speaking before the decision, suggested privately that allowing Burnham to run might have been a stronger move, implying that blocking him could portray Starmer as weak.
There have been aggressive briefings against potential leadership contenders like Wes Streeting, alongside the exclusion of Burnham from returning to Westminster. Opinions vary on whether these actions demonstrate strength or weakness, with many leaning towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that have wearied the public. However, until Starmer can enhance Labour’s dwindling poll ratings, doubts about his leadership may persist.
Despite criticisms and claims that Burnham prioritizes personal ambitions over his constituents in Greater Manchester, he remains a popular figure with a strong reputation beyond Westminster, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
While Labour secured a comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the upcoming by-election will present a challenge amidst efforts by Reform to upset the status quo and the Greens to garner support from the left. Burnham has warned about the potential repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome, indicating significant stakes for Labour.
If Labour were to lose the upcoming by-election, it could lead to serious consequences.