Russia has seen a significant increase in its oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s figures by close to 50 percent. Approximately 20 million barrels have been shipped to Asia from July to mid-October this year, according to traders and data reports.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets via icy Arctic waters, known for being a more perilous and costly route. However, due to disruptions in other major routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea, the NSR has become a more attractive alternative this year.
Rising tensions in regions like Iran and Ukraine have led to record-high tanker freight rates, prompting Asian refiners to seek oil from alternative sources like the Middle East and Latin America since U.S. crude became more challenging to access. Despite high tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance, using the NSR turned out to be a more cost-effective option compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, which controls the NSR, this route provides a secure alternative to European waters, where incidents of tankers carrying Russian oil being detained have been reported this year. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route will increase by another five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35 percent this year compared to 2025. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its shipments of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia via the NSR, with a rise in LNG supply anticipated following the introduction of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia aims to double cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent opening of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has also contributed to the growing volumes of oil using the NSR.