The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and could become the most powerful on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass all previous monitored occurrences over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency’s projections indicate a nearly 100% probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This high level of certainty is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A severe El Niño can cause significant disruptions to global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, impacting weather patterns across Latin America with intense rains and droughts.
The ongoing El Niño has already affected tropical regions’ soft commodity markets, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO predicts that this El Niño will peak later this year but its effects will extend into 2027, leading to higher global temperatures. Secretary-General Saulo highlighted the organization’s enhanced preparedness and early warning efforts to mitigate the impact of this phenomenon.
The WMO is collaborating closely with UN partners and the humanitarian system to provide crucial climate intelligence to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. The organization aims to equip stakeholders with the necessary insights to navigate the challenges posed by the intensifying El Niño.
[WATCH: What a ‘super’ El Niño means for you]
Some climate models suggest that 2026 could witness a particularly strong El Niño. CBC’s Nick Logan explains the implications of this phenomenon and what Canadians can expect in the upcoming period.